I'm in India. It's a glorious mess. The streets of Delhi remain a seething, endless vortex of chaos, as they were when I last visited eleven years ago, but nowadays, gleaming new highways, shopping malls, and five-star hotels rise above them. The sleek and efficient new metro system carries millions of people a day, but leaks in the monsoon rains. The suburb of Gurgaon looks completely First World, equal parts office towers, shopping centres, luxury gated residental enclaves, and golf courses, but as the New York Times recently reported, it does not have "a functioning citywide sewer or drainage system; reliable electricity or water; and public sidewalks, adequate parking, decent roads or any citywide system of public transportation." Meanwhile, the government is reeling with corruption scandals, including last year's Commonwealth Games debacle and a whopping $40 billion worth of mis-auctioned 2G spectrum. The central question of our time is whether this will be China's century or India's. (Assuming that the notion of nation-states survives, which seems likely, there aren't really any other contenders; China and India contain nearly half of humanity, and both are well on their way to economic superpower.) I admit that right now it might not seem much of a contest. China is more populous, already a decade ahead of India in terms of economic development, growing faster, and?measured by patents?far more innovative. In China, achievements are accomplished at the behest of the government; in India, things somehow manage to get done despite the government. But I think that's an advantage. I don't believe patent applications measure real innovation. I think India is more innovative, and that it will ultimately win the economic race, not just despite the Indian authorities' habit of incompetent self-destruction, but because of it.
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